US CPI Inflation Report (LIVE): Real-Time Updates

Crypto markets are preparing for volatility as the US CPI report releases today. Analysts highlight a bullish daily bias for Bitcoin, but expect price to first sweep relatively equal lows before any potential upward move. A 1-hour close below $68,350 could invalidate the long setup. Compared to Ethereum and Solana, Bitcoin currently shows the strongest trading structure.

Bitcoin has historically reacted strongly to US CPI releases. In March 2025, BTC rebounded from $76K, followed by a rally past $90K in May, and a push toward $95K in December. February inflation is expected to hold at 2.4% YoY, the same as last month. However, the broader trend shows inflation cooling from 3.0% to 2.4% over six months, nearing the Fed’s 2% target. This steady decline reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve and increases expectations of future rate cuts—liquidity signals that crypto markets often anticipate.

Bitcoin is consolidating ahead of the US CPI release after sweeping liquidity near $71,563 and rejecting the level. Traders are watching the $69,268 low closely, as a break could signal a market structure shift and open the door for further downside. Short positions are targeting liquidity around $65,957, with a small portion left for a potential extended move. However, a break above the $71,784 weekly high could invalidate the bearish setup and even trigger short-term scalp longs.

Today’s CPI report will play a key role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Forecasts suggest no change in inflation levels, but any surprise could quickly shift market sentiment. Lower inflation may give the Fed more room to cut rates, supporting equities. However, hotter inflation data could delay policy easing and push bond yields and the US dollar higher.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released today, a key inflation indicator closely watched by investors. Forecasts expect core CPI to remain unchanged at 2.5%, while the monthly CPI forecast also stands steady at 2.4%. The data will be released one hour before market open, potentially triggering major volatility. Lower-than-expected inflation could boost stocks, while higher inflation may pressure markets and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The upcoming US CPI report could be a major catalyst for gold prices. If core inflation rises more than expected, hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts may fade, strengthening the US dollar and pushing gold toward the $5,000 support area and possibly the 50-day moving average near $4,897. However, if inflation slows faster than expected, gold could break its consolidation range and rally above the $5,250 psychological level, potentially testing the $5,342 resistance level.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due at 12:30 UTC, with economists expecting annual inflation to remain at 2.4% in February. On a monthly basis, CPI is forecast to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%, while core CPI is expected to hold steady at 2.5%. Persistently firm inflation, alongside rising oil and energy prices, could keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to remain cautious. As a result, markets see limited chances of another rate cut in the near term

February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy stance, according to Bank of America. Headline inflation is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, while core CPI may increase 0.2%, signaling relatively contained consumer prices. BofA analysts say the anticipated figures align with the Fed’s current outlook and should not prompt immediate policy adjustments. With inflation pressures appearing stable, the central bank is likely to maintain its cautious approach as it continues monitoring economic data before making any rate decisions.